ABSTRACT
ImportanceSARS-CoV-2 genomic variants impacts the overall sensitivity of COVID-19 diagnosis, leading to false-negative diagnosis and the continued spread of the virus. ObjectiveTo evaluate how nucleotide variability in target primer binding sites of the SARS-CoV-2 genomes may impact diagnosis using different recommended primer/probe sets, as well as to suggest the best primer/probes for diagnosis. DesignWe downloaded 105,118 public SARS-CoV-2 genomes from GISAID (Sept, 25th, 2020), removed genomes of apparent worst quality (genome length <29kb and/or >5% ambiguous bases) and missing metadata, and performed an analysis of complementarity for the 13 most used diagnostic primers/probe sets for RT-PCR detection. We calculated the N rate and % of genome recovery, with all primer/probe-sets considering viral origin and clade. Results: Our findings indicate that currently, the Paris_nCoV-IP2, -IP4 and WHO|E_Sarbeco primer/probe sets for COVID-19, to perform the best diagnostically worldwide, recovering >99.5% of the good quality SARS-CoV-2 genomes from GISAID, with no mismatches. The Chinese_CDC|2019-nCoV-NP primer/probe set, among the first to be designed during the pandemic, was the most susceptible to currently most abundant SARS-CoV-2 variants. Mismatches encompassing the binding sites for this set are more frequent in Clade-GR and are highly prevalent in over 30 countries globally, including Brazil and India, two of the hardest hit countries. Conclusions: Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in patients may be hampered by significant variability in parts of the viral genome that are targeted by some widely used primer sets. The geographic distribution of different viral clades indicates that continuous assessment of primer sets via sequencing-based surveillance and viral evolutionary analysis is critical to accurate diagnostics. This study highlights sequence variance in target regions that may reduce the efficiency of primer:target hybridization that in turn may lead to the undetected spread of the virus. As such, due to this variance, the Chinese_CDC|2019-nCoV-NP-set should be used with caution, or avoided, especially in countries with high prevalence of the GR clade. Key Points QuestionHow variable are the binding-sites of primers/probes used for COVID-19 diagnosis? FindingsWe investigated nucleotide variations in primer-binding sites used for COVID-19 diagnosis, in 93,143 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, and found primer sets targeting regions of increasingly nucleotide variance over time, such as the Chinese_CDC|2019-nCoV-NP. The frequency of these variations is higher in Clade-GR whose frequency is increasing worldwide. Paris_nCoV-IP2, IP4 and WHO|E_Sarbeco performed best. MeaningWe suggest the use of some sets to be halted and reinforce the importance of a continuous surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variations to prompt the use of the best primers.